Will oil prices slow down the economy?
Oil prices have been rising since the end of last year to a six-month high, and have risen steadily higher for the past two months. ...
The yield curve inversion and what that means for the economy
The bond market has driven the 3-month yield higher than the 10-year yield (the classic “yield-curve inversion”), which has been a...
Does a slowing economy mean a recession is around the corner?
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the economy was “healthy” and conditions “favorable” but warned of potential headwinds and future...
Fed changes course to boost the markets; another Greenspan-like put?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced today that they would exercise patience with respect to interest rate increases, and...
2018 Year-end summary, and a 2019 projection
2018 has been a year of highs and lows, and a particularly gyrating stock market (that I have likened to a roller-coaster ride in earlier...
The economy, tax cuts, and the Federal Reserve (my 100th blog!)
The economy this year has been performing better than expected, due to the cumulative effects of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)....
When is the next recession? It’s just a matter of time…
As we celebrate the Thanksgiving holiday, let that serve as a reminder. Winter always follows fall. Some winters are less severe than...
Let’s make a deal - Trump tariffs and the trade wars
This month’s business cycle blog will focus on the latest status of Trump’s trade war and its effect on the economy. Of special note is...
Fed Policy Course: middle of the road?
As expected, the Fed announced another quarter point interest rate hike. Fed guidance for further rate increases was also as expected:...
Where will this economic road lead us?
When considering the economic business cycle, one way to think about it is like the four seasons of the weather. The cycle starts with a...
