Edward Thomas Author

Economic and Business cycle expert and Author of a "cycles" trilogy about history, politics, and economic cycles.

Let’s make a deal - Trump tariffs and the trade wars

This month’s business cycle blog will focus on the latest status of Trump’s trade war and its effect on the economy. Of special note is...

New stock market highs: is the upside potential worth the downside risk?

As of August 8, 2018, the S&P is at 2858, only 14 points (0.5%) away from its all-time high of 2872. The NASDAQ ended today at 7888,...

Who Wins a Global Trade War?

About 20 years ago, when I took an MBA level Macroeconomics course at UC Irvine, the professor said that free trade is the best use of...

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Last blog for a while…

Will oil prices slow down the economy?

Could a rate cut launch the housing market?

Which direction is this market headed?

What is going to be the next inflation trigger?

The yield curve inversion and what that means for the economy

Lower interest rates and less competition - how long will it last?

Have the bears had their last roar, or is the market poised for more pain?

Does the Fed need to adjust its inflation target?

Does a slowing economy mean a recession is around the corner?

Could a recession actually boost real estate sales?

Trade War relief and the Stock Market goes higher - feels like Groundhog’s Day

Asset bubbles and inflation - what is the correlation?

Fed changes course to boost the markets; another Greenspan-like put?

Real Estate sales are in the tank, and some think they won’t recover any time soon

Is the stock market rebound a bounce or a recovery?

Will a Fed rate pause incur additional inflation risk?

2018 Year-end summary, and a 2019 projection